A ‘housekeeping jobs list’ published on the National Bureau of Economic Research website lists the occupations most likely to get a job in the next five years, but not in 2020.
It is a stark reversal from 2016, when the jobs market was in the midst of a severe downturn, which saw job creation hit a new low.
It was in that year that the unemployment rate fell from 5.4 per cent to 5.1 per cent.
That was the lowest level since December 2011, but it was not a sign of economic recovery.
The National Bureau for Economic Research, the government’s central data collection agency, says the number of people employed in each of the next six occupations has risen by nearly two-thirds since 2012.
These include “housekeeping”, “managers”, “administrative assistants”, “financial advisors”, “accountants”, “lawyers”, and “insurance agents”.
It says that in 2020, “the number of employed persons aged 25-54 years will be around 9.5 million.”
It says the employment rate is expected to be around 7.3 per cent in 2020 and 7.6 per cent by 2031.
The economy has grown faster than the number employed.
“As we get closer to the peak of employment, we see a return to the recession in the number and percentage of employed,” said the report’s co-author and former Bank of Canada governor, Stephen Poloz.
“We see that there are still some jobs that are not being filled.
There are still many people who have not found a job.”
The number of jobs in each occupation is based on the number (or percentage) of people who were in the previous year.
“The numbers in each profession do not mean that the job will be filled,” said Poloz, who now serves as the chief economist at the University of Toronto’s Ross School of Business.
“If you look at the job description, it is an attempt to find a job that matches the needs of the current workforce.”
In 2016, for example, “insurers” accounted for more than half of all jobs in the U.S., while “housekeepers” and “mangers” made up a smaller share of jobs than in 2017.
“In some cases, the proportion of jobs that fall into one of these two categories has declined since 2016,” the report says.
It notes that in 2016, “there were 1.6 million housekeepers, and 1.2 million housekeeping workers.”
The rise in occupations over the past two decades The report notes that the number in the first two years of the recovery “has largely been due to the rise in the demand for care work and home care services.”
The growth in the supply of care work has continued to increase, which helped lift up the number for “managing” and then “insuring” jobs.
But “many occupations have experienced significant declines in the past five years,” according to the report.
It says this has occurred mainly because “many sectors have seen a reduction in employment in the last year, and many industries have experienced job cuts or attrition in recent years.”
The job growth in nursing and social assistance has also been “very limited” since 2016, it says.
The report says the total number of occupations that are considered to be in the “demand” for services has fallen by about 30 per cent since 2012, while “employment in those jobs has increased by only 7.4 percent since then.”
But the report points out that many of the occupations that have risen are “not likely to see the job growth that they were in 2016.”
For example, the number working in retail has fallen from 17.3 million in 2016 to 16.9 million in 2020 while “the percentage of retail occupations that is full time employment has increased from 23.2 percent in 2016 (to 30.3 percent in 2020).”
It notes there has been a “significant increase in the share of non-care service occupations that were in demand for a year” over the same period.
“However, the increase in occupations in demand is not as pronounced as the increase of occupations in supply,” it said.
For example: The number working as a financial advisor has risen from 1.9 percent in the year of 2016 to 2.1 percent in 2018.
The number doing home care has risen between 2.2 and 3.2 percentage points since 2016.
It also notes that “many of the industries that have seen job growth during the recovery, including finance, insurance, and healthcare, are now in the process of decreasing their employment rates.”
The National Bancorporation of Canada has been pushing for a jobless recovery for some time now.
In its latest annual report, it called for the “end of the recession and a return of job creation.”
The report said that since the recession began in late 2007 and into the first quarter of 2016, the unemployment level in Canada has dropped by almost 6 per cent